NCB Property Barometer Q4 2007


Property Barometer, Q4 2007This edition of the NCB Property Barometer covers the period up to Quarter 4, 2007. The findings are based on an analysis of the asking prices on properties available for sale through which accounts for approximately 70% of the the overall number of properties for sale in the Republic of Ireland.

Dublin, February 7th 2008: Further Fall in Asking Prices nationally with sharper falls in  key sectors says NCB Property Barometer

Asking prices for residential property have dropped by -0.2%  nationally over the last Quarter bringing the decrease for the last year to 1.7%, according to the NCB Property Barometer published today.

The NCB Barometer, based on an analysis of all properties advertised on over the period, again shows the sharpest price drops in Dublin of -1.4% in the Quarter but with certain sectors and regions showing greater decreases:

  • Nationally new homes prices showed a -0.9% fall in Asking Prices in Q4 with second-hand homes down just -0.1% in the period
  • One-bed apartments in north Dublin down -3.8% with a +0.5% rise in south Dublin following falls earlier in the year
  • Two-bed apartment Asking Prices in north Dublin showed a -6.7% decline while in the south city a -8.6% fall was recorded
  • The price movements in Q4 for 3-bed semis varied:  -1.3% in Leinster (excl Dublin); -2.9% in Dublin West;-1.3% in Cork city and -2% in Munster while in Connacht-Ulster prices for 4 bed detached houses dropped -1.5% in the quarter

The Report also tracks the trends in Asking Prices against trends in actual sale Prices and shows that over the last 12 months the fall in Sale Prices has consistently exceeded the more modest drop in Asking prices.

Commenting on the results, Jim Miley, Chief executive of said: “This latest Barometer Report confirms that we are now firmly in a buyers market. However, the further drops in asking Prices over the final quarter of 2007 indicate that sellers are beginning to face up to the reality of the market and accept lower prices. Estate agents are reporting some increase in transaction activity but it will take more time to clear the overhang of stock in the market.”

NCB economist, Eunan King who provided the expert commentary for the Report said,
“Confidence remains weak in the housing market for the moment, but the underlying need for accommodation continues to be firm, as evidenced by rising rents. The inflow of immigrants was over 100,000 in each of the two years to April 2007 and would not appear to have slackened much since then. The affordability of houses is improving as house prices fall, incomes increase and interest rates peak. The prospect of interest rate cuts later in the year is now firmer. Employment is still growing and, while unemployment has risen somewhat, it is still low and is in any case is not as good a barometer of demand as employment. Thus there is no fundamental crisis in the sector. If housing output is cut sharply, as anecdotal evidence would have it, any supply overhang will be absorbed fairly quickly and output growth should resume.”

The Report includes a four-page, county-by-county guide providing details of price trends for the most popular property types on sale. Most counties show a drop in prices for 3 bed semis in the last quarter with the sharpest fall of 7.7% in Roscommon. Prices for 4 bed detached houses dropped to a lesser extent and in some counties modest rises in Asking Prices were recorded.

The Report also puts the spotlight on a number of areas and analyses key price movements and the changes in the ‘price premium’ trends in one area over another over the last three years. Among the key findings are:

  • The ‘price premium’ or gap for 3 bedroom semi-detached houses in Dublin compared with, for example, Carlow has stabilised at around €250,00 compared with €300,00 at the price peak in 2006.
  • In Wicklow, however, 3 bed semi prices are much closer to those in Dublin with just a €50,000 premium for the Dublin houses.

These figures indicate that the greatest level of price adjustments are taking place in those areas, which experienced the steepest price rises in earlier years.

The database contains more than two-thirds of all residential properties for sale in Ireland. The Report was based on an independent analysis of the data and commentary by NCB.

Leave a Reply